The cyclone named ‘Biporjoy’ over the Arabian Sea has rapidly intensified into a highly intense cyclonic storm, affecting the monsoon onset in Kerala. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that the conditions are favorable for the monsoon to arrive in Kerala within the next two days, albeit in a mild manner due to the influence of the cyclone.
Meteorologists have observed that the cyclone is impacting the intensity of the monsoon, leading to a relatively gentle onset over Kerala. The IMD predicts further intensification and northward movement of the very severe cyclonic storm over the next three days. However, no major impact on neighboring countries, including India, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan, has been forecasted so far.
According to the latest update from the IMD, Cyclone Biporjoy is currently located about 850 kilometers west-southwest of Goa, 900 kilometers southwest of Mumbai, 930 kilometers south-southwest of Porbandar, and 1220 kilometers south of Karachi. The cyclone is expected to intensify further over the next three days.
As for rainfall forecasts, scattered rains are expected across Maharashtra, while Mumbai and Pune are likely to experience intense rainfall from June 8 to 10 due to the impact of Cyclone Biporjoy. Over the next five days, light to moderate fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds is expected over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka. Isolated to scattered activity is also predicted over North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh during the same period.
Sea conditions are expected to be very high to “phenomenal” over the central and south Arabian Sea, becoming “phenomenal” from the evening of June 8. Rough sea conditions are also anticipated along the Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra coasts. Similar patterns of sea conditions are predicted for subsequent days, gradually intensifying over the central and adjoining north Arabian Sea.
The Gujarat government has assured its preparedness to deal with possible natural calamities, as light rain and strong winds are likely to affect the state due to the cyclone’s impact. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the Arabian Sea until June 14.
Cyclone Biporjoy is expected to make landfall in Pakistan, and its northward movement may defy the predicted track and intensity. Scientists attribute the increasing intensity and duration of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea to climate change, with rising ocean temperatures playing a significant role. The impact of climate change has led to a notable increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea.
While the cyclone’s influence is likely to result in a mild monsoon onset over Kerala, it is crucial to monitor its progress and the associated weather conditions. The variability of the monsoon onset over Kerala has been observed over the years, and its implications for agricultural productivity and water resources are of significant importance to India’s food security and economic stability.